Think tank refutes Whitehall’s high estimate of post-accession influx of Bulgarians and Romanians into UK

The British Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) considers that as few as 15,000 Bulgarians and 41,000 Romanians are likely to migrate to the UK after their countries accede to the EU in 2007, a fraction of the 160,000 new arrivals mentioned by British Government officials.

Approached by Sofia-based Bulgaria in EU Press Center on Wednesday, IPPR researcher Catherine Drew, one of the authors of a study on "EU Enlargement: Bulgaria and Romania - migration implications for the UK," explained that her Institute’s study was based on a transparent methodology, while Whitehall’s figures were "leaked" without any explanation what methodology was behind them.

IPPR argues that the UK Government should allow labour market access to Romanian and Bulgarian nationals to work in Britain when accession in 2007 because new inflows are likely to be relatively small, the impacts on the UK labour market are likely to be positive, free access will have to be introduced eventually and a separate scheme would increase bureaucracy, and the Romanians and Bulgarians already there would be able to regularise their status.

Allowing labour market access to workers after the 2004 enlargement has proved beneficial for the UK. Although the new workers who came to Britain during the first year exceeded official estimates, their impact has been positive, the IPPR concluded.

Drew also stressed the factor of strong traditions of migration of Bulgarians and Romanians to countries like Spain, Italy or Greece, which might "defuse" immigration pressure away from new destinations such as the British Isles.

The 2001 Census showed 7,500 Romanian-born people living in the UK and another 5,350 Bulgarians. On the other hand, there are already 86,700 Romanians and 9,600 Bulgarians in Italy, 59,300 Romanians and 27,100 Bulgarians in Spain, and 26,600 Romanians and 38,900 Bulgarians in Greece.

IPPR’s estimate of 56,000 Romanian and Bulgarian new entrants, joining 12,000 already there, is based on an analysis of flows after the last EU enlargement in 2004 and assumes a similar arrangement to the Worker Registration Scheme being in place when Romania and Bulgaria join.

On the subject of the so-called 40,000 "undesirables," the researcher said that she would disagree with the terminology. "Closing the UK labour market would not stop these people coming," she added.

"The Sunday Times" recently reported that the Home Office is privately warning that 45,000 "undesirable" migrants from Romania and Bulgaria could legally be allowed to live in Britain when the two countries join the European Union next year. It has drawn up a confidential "warnings index" of people from the two states, most of whom are suspected of having criminal associations or posing a security risk, the newspaper wrote.

BTA